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This notebook is the compact review layer for the full math section. It reconnects the main ideas through short business examples so the formulas stay anchored to practical interpretation.## Quick Reference| Topic | Formula | Business reading || --- | --- | --- || Mean | μ=1nxi\mu = \frac{1}{n}\sum x_i | average KPI || Linear model | y=β0+β1xy = \beta_0 + \beta_1x | baseline plus effect || Derivative | dydx\frac{dy}{dx} | local sensitivity || Expected value | E[X]=P(x)xE[X] = \sum P(x)x | average payoff under risk || Bayes rule | P(AB)=P(BA)P(A)P(B)P(A \mid B) = \frac{P(B \mid A)P(A)}{P(B)} | update belief with evidence |## Worked Example Set- Forecast: if y=5000+3xy = 5000 + 3x and x=1000x = 1000, predicted sales are 8000- Optimization: if R(p)=p(1002p)R(p) = p(100 - 2p), setting the derivative to zero gives p=25p = 25- Expected value: combining uncertain outcomes yields an average payoff even when no single outcome is guaranteed- Churn probability: total probability combines multiple customer paths into one overall risk estimatemermaidflowchart TD A[Notation] --> B[Linear model] --> C[Optimization] --> D[Probability] --> E[Decision]Alt text: The cheat-sheet connects math ideas into one decision-making chain.## Quick Check1. What is the predicted outcome if y=4000+2xy = 4000 + 2x and x=500x = 500?2. What is the expected value of a payoff of 100 with probability 0.3 and 0 otherwise?3. What do you usually inspect after finding a zero derivative?

Answers
1. 5000 2. 30 3. Curvature or nearby behavior to decide whether the point is a minimum or maximum
Next: Hypothesis Testing Basics

ad_spend = 1000predicted_sales = 5000 + 3 * ad_spendprice = 25revenue = price * (100 - 2 * price)print('predicted sales =', predicted_sales)print('revenue at price 25 =', revenue)
outcomes = [50000, 10000, -5000]probabilities = [0.2, 0.5, 0.3]expected_value = sum(o * p for o, p in zip(outcomes, probabilities))overall_churn = 0.6 * 0.05 + 0.4 * 0.20print('expected value =', expected_value)print('overall churn =', round(overall_churn, 3))