This notebook is the compact review layer for the full math section. It reconnects the main ideas through short business examples so the formulas stay anchored to practical interpretation.## Quick Reference| Topic | Formula | Business reading || --- | --- | --- || Mean | | average KPI || Linear model | | baseline plus effect || Derivative | | local sensitivity || Expected value | | average payoff under risk || Bayes rule | | update belief with evidence |## Worked Example Set- Forecast: if and , predicted sales are 8000- Optimization: if , setting the derivative to zero gives - Expected value: combining uncertain outcomes yields an average payoff even when no single outcome is guaranteed- Churn probability: total probability combines multiple customer paths into one overall risk estimatemermaidflowchart TD A[Notation] --> B[Linear model] --> C[Optimization] --> D[Probability] --> E[Decision]Alt text: The cheat-sheet connects math ideas into one decision-making chain.## Quick Check1. What is the predicted outcome if and ?2. What is the expected value of a payoff of 100 with probability 0.3 and 0 otherwise?3. What do you usually inspect after finding a zero derivative?Answers
ad_spend = 1000predicted_sales = 5000 + 3 * ad_spendprice = 25revenue = price * (100 - 2 * price)print('predicted sales =', predicted_sales)print('revenue at price 25 =', revenue)outcomes = [50000, 10000, -5000]probabilities = [0.2, 0.5, 0.3]expected_value = sum(o * p for o, p in zip(outcomes, probabilities))overall_churn = 0.6 * 0.05 + 0.4 * 0.20print('expected value =', expected_value)print('overall churn =', round(overall_churn, 3))